Episode 3 — Akatsuki is not a team

False assumption: Akatsuki has one shared plan

On the surface, Akatsuki has a simple goal: capturing the nine Bijū and summoning the Jūbi. But “Akatsuki” is a group of different characters, and there is only one Jūbi. In the end, only one of them can get the prize.

Let us list all the major characters who want the Jūbi:

Nagato

Obito

Madara

Orochimaru

Kabuto

Zetsu

Jūbi

Samehada

Some entries, like Obito, are obvious; some others, like the Jūbi itself, may sound strange for now. That’s fine; they will be explained later.

For the moment, our lesson is simple: those characters share the same goal, but it doesn’t make them allies. All these characters are actually enemies, because their victory conditions are mutually exclusive. For example, if Nagato obtains the Jūbi, then Obito doesn’t. And if Obito gets the Jūbi, then Madara does not.

From Konoha’s perspective, those characters may appear to work together, but they are bound to plot against each other eventually.

Two opposite positions: Nagato and Zetsu

Nagato

Asset: at the start of the novel, he has the Rinnegan. It means that if the Jūbi were summoned immediately, Nagato would be the one to claim it.

Handicap: he lacks information on his competitors, on the Jūbi itself, and on the world in general. Most of the information he gets transits through Obito and Zetsu, as his only independent resource would be his small Amegakure village.

Zetsu

Asset: he has the best information position. Most competitors have no idea what Zetsu actually is, or what his goals are. His position as a spy allows him to control who gets to know what.

Handicap: compared to Obito and Nagato, who just need to absorb the Jūbi, Zetsu’s win condition is complicated. He needs Madara to be revived and successfully cast the Infinite Tsukuyomi, and then to get in a position to physically backstab Madara.

For Akatsuki leaders, capturing the Jinchūriki never was the problem. Naruto, and Konoha in general, never were a real threat to them. Dealing with the other competitors within Akatsuki is the real challenge.

For the sake of the exercice, let’s have a quick look at two competitors: Nagato and Zetsu. Each of them has different assets and handicaps.

Why Obito cannot capture Naruto early

With that, we can answer our opening question. Obito couldn’t capture Naruto earlier in the story because Nagato still had the Rinnegan, and had control over the Gedō Mazō.

If Naruto is captured and the Jūbi is summoned, it may be, from Konoha’s perspective, an Akatsuki victory. But from Obito’s perspective, it’s a disaster: Nagato, thanks to his Rinnegan, absorbs the Jūbi, and uses its power to kill Obito.

As long as Nagato lives, Obito cannot allow Naruto to be captured.

Nagato still has the Rinnegan. (Here as Pain, chapter 379.)

So why not kill Nagato?

The reader may ask, if Nagato having the Rinnegan is such an issue, why didn’t Obito just kill him and take the Rinnegan when they initially met?

At the time, Nagato was still a kid, and didn’t know how to use the formidable power of the Rinnegan yet. Killing him wouldn’t have been difficult.

The answer is: Zetsu.

Obito is supposed, according Madara's plan, to eventually have Nagato revive Madara. Nagato obviously cannot cast Rinne Tensei if Obito kills him. So attacking Nagato would immediately expose Obito’s betrayal of Madara’s plan to Zetsu, making Zetsu the immediate problem.

Chapter 607: when Obito met Nagato, Zetsu was present too.

So why not kill Zetsu?

From there, you may ask: would Zetsu turning against Obito be such a problem? After all, Zetsu isn’t supposed to be such a strong fighter.

The answer is, yes, it would be. Let’s have a look at Obito’s position.

Zetsu body

Nearly half of Obito’s body is made of Zetsu substance. What would happen to this body if Obito were to right the main Zetsu?

Zetsu may have a way to remotely control or deactivate Obito’s Zetsu half, turning Obito’s own body against him.

Heart seal

Madara’s seal is still on Obito’s heart. As far as Obito knows, Zetsu is Madara’s will.

How would the seal react if Obito were to attack Madara’s will? Zetsu may be able to remotely shut down Obito’s heart.

Rinnegan unknowns

Everything Obito knows about the Rinnegan is what Madara taught him. Madara expects Obito to betray him. If the Rinnegan has an anti-Kamui mechanic, Madara certainly wouldn’t have told Obito.

Chapter 603

Chapter 675

Chapter 606: Madara teaching Obito.

So the fight we’re looking at is, Obito against Zetsu + Nagato + his own heart + half of his own body + unknown Rinnegan / Zetsu abilities. Obito’s odds are terrible. Attacking Nagato head on isn’t an option.

The perspective rule

The reader may object that, Zetsu was never shown remotely controlling Zetsu substance, nor was proven capable of using the heart seal to shut down Obito’s heart. So, aren’t we making up threats that may not exist?

That objection is valid, and Zetsu may indeed not have such abilities, but it does not matter. Our point stands regardless of Zetsu’s actual abilities. Obito is calculating his moves based not on what the reader knows, but based on what he knows, what he believes he knows, and what he knows he does not know.

Here, Obito knows very little about Zetsu. But he knows about Madara.

From Obito’s perspective, Madara would have expected his betrayal and planned against it, either with the heart seal, with the Zetsu body, or with the Rinnegan itself. It wouldn’t be realistic to assume Madara isn’t prepared for Obito’s betrayal. So unless he is desperate, Obito cannot afford to fight Zetsu directly. The risk is too high. He has to pretend he still is following Madara’s plan.

The lesson is: strategy is not played on the real board. It is played on the board the character believes exists.

Mirrored fear

Here’s a perfect example. As we just saw, Obito cannot attack Nagato directly because he believes Zetsu would turn against him. But in the same logic, one of the reasons why Nagato doesn’t try to attack Obito directly, is that he believes Zetsu would side with Obito.

This is fine; this is not a contradiction. Obito and Nagato both have imperfect information, and are both planning their moves according to what they believe. What Zetsu actually would have done, is not relevant when we are studying Obito’s plan.

Both Nagato and Obito see Zetsu as a threat. (Here in chapter 607.)

So, what was Obito's plan then?

First, when the position does not favour you, you buy time until the position improves. Itachi was a good asset for Obito in that regard: he knew Itachi would intentionally botch any mission to capture Naruto. Itachi had also threatened to kill Obito if Akatsuki directly attacked Konoha. That gave Obito a plausible excuse to give Zetsu (as seen in chapter 404) for delaying any invasion attempt.

Whether or not Itachi truly would be capable of killing Obito is not relevant. What matters here is, Obito believes it is plausible enough for Zetsu to believe it.

The second thing you do is, if you can't risk attacking Nagato directly, you try to get him killed by someone else. This is why Obito tasked Pain with invading Konoha. Konoha is the most powerful of the great villages, and Nagato had a personal grudge against them, meaning he was more likely, in his quest for vengeance, to make mistakes.

Nagato knew what Obito was doing, but played along because it fit his own plan, as we will see later.

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Trying to send Nagato to his death. (Chapter 363.)

The Itachi excuse. (Chapter 404.)

Akatsuki politics in one scene

Chapter 453: both are lying, and both know it.

One scene perfectly sums up Akatsuki politics. In chapter 453, After Nagato’s death, Obito tells Zetsu that the loss was unforeseen and unfortunate.

He is lying. Nagato’s death was exactly what Obito wanted. Zetsu knows he is lying, but plays along because his own plan isn’t threatened yet. Obito knows that Zetsu knows, but he has a plan of his own to make Rinne Tensei difficult.

That’s Akatsuki leaders. Everyone is acting. Everyone knows the others are acting. Everyone is planning to backstab the others. Until then, the apparent alliance continues because the next move still benefits multiple players.